Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Thursday, July 2, 2009
The concept of Immigration - perhaps a new window of balancing is open for us.
In the tough times that the world is going through now a days, everything seems to be bearish. Some of the very fundamentals of economic growth like stock market portfolios, growth in average income, unemployment, declining provision of health services, and too much noise in immigration, all are creating a havoc on planet earth.
I still remember a few month back, there was a crisis on food supply - I recall going to costco, where everything is available in bulk, and I was unable to find bags of basmati rice. On asking, I was told by COSTCO that it is because of food shortage in rice exporting countries in south east asia. I remember oil prices going as high as $ 4.5 a gallon in Utah - whatever the reasons are, the fact is that commodities are getting scarce.
The challenge is that we try to resolve all of these gloabl issues separately, as if they are not interrelated. For instance, we ask ourselves a question why people want to move from their homeland to somewhere else? O well, looks like I will have to go one layer lower than this question. So lets see why would wild animals who are generally very arrogant when it comes to their boundaries migrate? Well some answers could be..
1) Well if there is a wild fire in the jungle.
2) If the river, streat, or a fresh water lake goes dry.
3) Drought, or scarcity of edible resources.
4) Spread of visible disease that animals can sense.
5) A group of hunters establish their base nearby and start killing the animals one by one.
6) Or anyother reason that tells the wild life that their growth is in danger in that area.
Observation:
1) In real life scenario - we let the animals migrate - feel happier, and accept their migration decision to a new region without any issue.
2) It looks like we are in full agreement with animals, and fish that they have the right to migrate wherever in search of better resources.
3) In some cases we call them endangered species, and provide them with the natural resources that went scarce so that they may evolve.
4) We are trying to save the habitat of polar bear in north, panda in china, bald eagle in usa, snow leaopards in pakistan and the list goes on.
Question?
What are we doing for humans - why we dont understand that if animals migrate in search of better prospects without regard to the boundaries of the countries why not humans?
I still remember a few month back, there was a crisis on food supply - I recall going to costco, where everything is available in bulk, and I was unable to find bags of basmati rice. On asking, I was told by COSTCO that it is because of food shortage in rice exporting countries in south east asia. I remember oil prices going as high as $ 4.5 a gallon in Utah - whatever the reasons are, the fact is that commodities are getting scarce.
The challenge is that we try to resolve all of these gloabl issues separately, as if they are not interrelated. For instance, we ask ourselves a question why people want to move from their homeland to somewhere else? O well, looks like I will have to go one layer lower than this question. So lets see why would wild animals who are generally very arrogant when it comes to their boundaries migrate? Well some answers could be..
1) Well if there is a wild fire in the jungle.
2) If the river, streat, or a fresh water lake goes dry.
3) Drought, or scarcity of edible resources.
4) Spread of visible disease that animals can sense.
5) A group of hunters establish their base nearby and start killing the animals one by one.
6) Or anyother reason that tells the wild life that their growth is in danger in that area.
Observation:
1) In real life scenario - we let the animals migrate - feel happier, and accept their migration decision to a new region without any issue.
2) It looks like we are in full agreement with animals, and fish that they have the right to migrate wherever in search of better resources.
3) In some cases we call them endangered species, and provide them with the natural resources that went scarce so that they may evolve.
4) We are trying to save the habitat of polar bear in north, panda in china, bald eagle in usa, snow leaopards in pakistan and the list goes on.
Question?
What are we doing for humans - why we dont understand that if animals migrate in search of better prospects without regard to the boundaries of the countries why not humans?
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
utah regional demographics evaluation panel
From February onwards, I will be part of the demographics database evaluation panel that regional council prepares for the transportation planning in the wasatch front region. No doubt the evalutaion panel would serve the purpose for this complex task but there are additional measures that can be taken to avoid any red tapes in this matter.
Some of the key steps should include:
1) Identification of regionwide transportation planning or infrastructure development projects that are under the impact of demographics or that may get impacted by any adjustmens to the demographic database.
2) Once the projects are identified, all the local government agencies, federal agencies, and statewide agencies should be brought on a table for discussion on how the demographics in their project area should be modified and what are their expectations from the projects?
3) On a control total levels for the county bodies, the governor's office of planning and budget should be contacted and control totals be verified. On City level, each city in the region should have an opportunity to adjust the demographics based on their plans.
4) All the input from the above efforts should be incorporated into the demographic dataset, that will make the final data set consistent with all the actors within the region.
Even if we do all of these steps, there will still be room for some hand massaging of the data; in most cases after some miner refinements, the data should be ready to use.
I am hoping this regional transportation plan would be ven better than what we submitted before.
Some of the key steps should include:
1) Identification of regionwide transportation planning or infrastructure development projects that are under the impact of demographics or that may get impacted by any adjustmens to the demographic database.
2) Once the projects are identified, all the local government agencies, federal agencies, and statewide agencies should be brought on a table for discussion on how the demographics in their project area should be modified and what are their expectations from the projects?
3) On a control total levels for the county bodies, the governor's office of planning and budget should be contacted and control totals be verified. On City level, each city in the region should have an opportunity to adjust the demographics based on their plans.
4) All the input from the above efforts should be incorporated into the demographic dataset, that will make the final data set consistent with all the actors within the region.
Even if we do all of these steps, there will still be room for some hand massaging of the data; in most cases after some miner refinements, the data should be ready to use.
I am hoping this regional transportation plan would be ven better than what we submitted before.
Saturday, December 13, 2008
blagojevich
this blagojevich scandal is a mess now....i always question these scandals where all the blame games are functional on just one actor i.e. the person under the microscope of media. In this scandal that is governor blagojevich....I wonder was he the only person playing bad....i am afraid by just blaming him for everything we might be trying to clap with only one hand which is not only impossible but also so unfair.
If blagojevich took bribe-offers...the other side of this crime scene would show us exactly who offered him bribe.
If blagojevich was asking for a price tag on a senate seat...who was willing to bid higher...
if he was talking crap on phone...who was on the otherside of the phone...
i believe for a fair trial's sake we must see other names tagged to this corruption scandal than just mr. blagojevich.
If blagojevich took bribe-offers...the other side of this crime scene would show us exactly who offered him bribe.
If blagojevich was asking for a price tag on a senate seat...who was willing to bid higher...
if he was talking crap on phone...who was on the otherside of the phone...
i believe for a fair trial's sake we must see other names tagged to this corruption scandal than just mr. blagojevich.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
route choice and genetic algortihm based simulations for control optimization
route choice is a system derived component where it could depend on many variables starting from a synchronic option available to users through advanced ITS devices or through external factros.
For example, a set of competing objectives will always encounter when we try to design and implement a framework using a complex system based on any heuristic approach. Be it a game theory problem, a problem initiated by operations management theory, or a simple logit math where we use utilities to compute the probablities, the competing objectives will always add complexities to the script in hand.
Another good example of competing objective problem is global air traffic system where the operations manager would optimize the system based on what is best for all the operators in the air traffic system. On the other hand, the traveler may choose his route regardless of what is best for the whole traffic system. Instead the traveler may opt for the route that is most congested, but shortest for him. It appears that there is a parallel existence of user equilibrium and susytem optimum here.
The question then would be if the equilibrium state would exist in a given traffic system; this question may open a bundle of many unanswered questions that are only theoretically investogated in the past by researchers. Some key questions that come to my mind at least include
1. Does the equilibrium state exist in global network of air traffic system?
2. Is there existence of User Equilibrium, and System Optimum? Do they co-exist?
3. Can a real life air traffic system be simulated to get these equilibrium conditions, and how do we regress the benefits of this equilibrium?
4. How the equilibrium system can take of the burden of high air traffic off of some of the nation's busiest airports...or may be in some cases world's busiest airports?
5. How does it help in terms of golbal environment, and energy savings?
6. Are we expecing a change in technology in near future?
In any case real life simulation of these airtraffic conditions are necessary to understand the benefits of UE and SO flows which are being tested on theoretical levels right now by the researchers.
It could be agood research extension of my doctoral research work.
For example, a set of competing objectives will always encounter when we try to design and implement a framework using a complex system based on any heuristic approach. Be it a game theory problem, a problem initiated by operations management theory, or a simple logit math where we use utilities to compute the probablities, the competing objectives will always add complexities to the script in hand.
Another good example of competing objective problem is global air traffic system where the operations manager would optimize the system based on what is best for all the operators in the air traffic system. On the other hand, the traveler may choose his route regardless of what is best for the whole traffic system. Instead the traveler may opt for the route that is most congested, but shortest for him. It appears that there is a parallel existence of user equilibrium and susytem optimum here.
The question then would be if the equilibrium state would exist in a given traffic system; this question may open a bundle of many unanswered questions that are only theoretically investogated in the past by researchers. Some key questions that come to my mind at least include
1. Does the equilibrium state exist in global network of air traffic system?
2. Is there existence of User Equilibrium, and System Optimum? Do they co-exist?
3. Can a real life air traffic system be simulated to get these equilibrium conditions, and how do we regress the benefits of this equilibrium?
4. How the equilibrium system can take of the burden of high air traffic off of some of the nation's busiest airports...or may be in some cases world's busiest airports?
5. How does it help in terms of golbal environment, and energy savings?
6. Are we expecing a change in technology in near future?
In any case real life simulation of these airtraffic conditions are necessary to understand the benefits of UE and SO flows which are being tested on theoretical levels right now by the researchers.
It could be agood research extension of my doctoral research work.
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
activity based route choice solutions
i wonder how activity based aggregate models could be useful?...Activity based models are data intensive; we dont have that kind of data available...similarly, even if some region in the united states used activity based models, my question to them would be how much of a difference it made to their projections as compared to when they used regular gravity model or any other combination of route choice model. If thedifference is not much, then how do they justify activity based models?
My personal thought on this issue is that Activity based models are only good in combined traffic assignment and control framework (CTAC), and that too only if we use dynamic assignment process. Otherwise, activity based models will get stale soon and the researchers will have to come up with some new idea to do projections.
My personal thought on this issue is that Activity based models are only good in combined traffic assignment and control framework (CTAC), and that too only if we use dynamic assignment process. Otherwise, activity based models will get stale soon and the researchers will have to come up with some new idea to do projections.
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